Both sides in Sudan's devastating civil war genuinely believe they can win on the battlefield. That shared delusion is why the killing continues.
When diplomats talk about peace in East Africa, they usually miss the core driver of the conflict. Massad Boulos, the US Africa envoy, laid it out plainly during an interview on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly. Neither the Sudanese Armed Forces nor the Rapid Support Forces are interested in genuine compromises right now because commanders on both fronts think total military triumph is just around the corner.
That miscalculation is prolonging a catastrophe that has displaced millions and devastated civilian infrastructure. If you want to understand why mediation efforts keep crashing into walls, you have to look at the psychology of the commanders holding the guns.
The Illusion of Total Conquest
Wars rarely end when both belligerents think victory is guaranteed. Sudan's current crisis is a masterclass in this dangerous phenomenon. The conflict erupted in April 2023, pitting the regular army led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces commanded by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo.
Instead of recognizing a bloody stalemate, each faction has doubled down on external support, territorial ambitions, and propaganda. When you talk to leadership circles in both camps, you hear the same stubborn rhetoric. They talk about crushing the adversary completely rather than sharing power in a transitional government.
This mindset completely ignores the human cost on the ground. Famine is spreading, healthcare systems have collapsed, and refugees are flooding neighboring countries like Chad and Egypt. Yet, war rooms in Port Sudan and contested neighborhoods in Khartoum continue to plan for an elusive knockout blow.
What US Diplomacy is Missing
Washington's approach to the crisis has faced steep hurdles, from visa controversies surrounding Sudanese leadership to wider regional friction involving countries like Rwanda. Boulos addressed these broader regional tensions during his UN meetings, noting that US sanctions and diplomatic pressures are tools that can be adjusted or reversed depending on regional cooperation.
However, external actors hold limited sway when local commanders are high on their own battlefield optimism. Sanctions only bite if the target feels vulnerable. Right now, both factions believe they have enough financial lifelines, weapons pipelines, and territorial control to outlast the international community's attention span.
Diplomats often assume that economic pain will force combatants to the negotiating table. That logic fails when pride and existential survival override basic economics.
Breaking the Deadlock
Ending this war requires shattering the myth of a military solution. Until external partners—including the United States, Gulf states, and African Union bodies—unite to impose real costs on the supply lines fueling both armies, the delusion of total victory will persist.
Stop waiting for a spontaneous diplomatic breakthrough. Real progress will only happen when both factions realize that continuing the fight guarantees mutual destruction, not triumph. Keep a close eye on how regional supply chains are managed in the coming months, because that is where the actual leverage lies.
